International relations thread

DB9

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Residents of the newly liberated city of Kherson are having to flee because of Russian shelling (Please note: This City, according to Putin is now part of Russia so they're shelling their "Own Country" Also Belarus's Foreign Minister has "Died Suddenly" Could be nothing but a lot of those people seem to "Die Suddenly"
 

Phil Sayers

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The Russian military being decimated (actually much more than decimated if using the literal meaning) and Putin's rule under threat, ever intensifying protests in Iran that do not seem like they will just quieten down and now protests in China that are directly calling for the fall of the CCP? While the cost of living crisis is a serious short-term problem and the human cost in Ukraine is heart-breaking, from the perspective of the long-term strategic interests of the West the current global situation will have quite a few smiles on faces in places like Whitehall and Langley.
 

Alistair20000

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The Russian military being decimated (actually much more than decimated if using the literal meaning) and Putin's rule under threat, ever intensifying protests in Iran that do not seem like they will just quieten down and now protests in China that are directly calling for the fall of the CCP? While the cost of living crisis is a serious short-term problem and the human cost in Ukraine is heart-breaking, from the perspective of the long-term strategic interests of the West the current global situation will have quite a few smiles on faces in places like Whitehall and Langley.
On the other hand instability could lead to a frenzied lashing out and ever more dangerous times.
 

Phil Sayers

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On the other hand instability could lead to a frenzied lashing out and ever more dangerous times.
While this is true I think that is less important from a Western perspective than:

A) The current foreign policy trajectories of all three governments put them on collision course with the West anyway.
B) If they are tied up in domestic unrest and foolish military adventures they will be less capable of advancing foreign policy goals that are harmful to the West.
 

Alistair20000

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While this is true I think that is less important from a Western perspective than:

A) The current foreign policy trajectories of all three governments put them on collision course with the West anyway.
B) If they are tied up in domestic unrest and foolish military adventures they will be less capable of advancing foreign policy goals that are harmful to the West.
Yes there is that but these regimes do not always behave rationally. Time will tell Where this ends up.
 

lamrobhero

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The popular revolutions in Eastern Europe succeeded because the countries were subsequently able to integrate into the EU on the basis of equality. Following on from Greece Portugal and Spain. The EU is a massive force for democracy prosperity and peace. This is why Oligarchs seek to undermine the EU. Post Brexit any UK posturing on popular revolutions is hypocritical - we support the Oligarchs.

Maybe assuming that a democratic Iran emerged, it would support the nuclear weapons programme (which makes sense in the light of history), view Israeli State terrorism on its soil as an act of war and oppose multinationals hijacking its wealth. Would we support democracy or "Western" interests?
 

Phil Sayers

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More M270 MLRS (that is what it is despite the French calling it LRU) is very bad news for Russia. Three promised so far but the French have more they could send:


The US is still baulking at providing ATACMS long range missiles (these are ballistic missiles with a large warhead and so could do extensive damage to Russian infrastructure) which are compatible with the M270 and HIMARS launchers but they are exploring a compromise position. Something with twice the 50 mile range that the precision guided rockets given to Ukraine currently have and therefore capable of attacking many more targets in occupied Ukraine (including pretty much all of Crimea) but with much less range than ATACMS and a far smaller warhead:

 
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