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International relations thread

tavyred

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I would argue that the fact that there is a war being waged in Europe means the situation is far more dangerous than the Cold War and most analysts would agree with that.

Personally I believe that Putin is far more willing to go Nuclear compared to most of the Soviet leaders, even if it means harming his fellow Russians, his actions over the destruction of the dam demonstrate the latter point.
Let’s not downplay how a nuclear conflict would play out if Putin decided that was the way to go. Russians wouldn’t just be harmed, Russia wouid be wiped off the face of the earth.
 

Radio Free Skaro

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Let’s not downplay how a nuclear conflict would play out if Putin decided that was the way to go. Russians wouldn’t just be harmed, Russia wouid be wiped off the face of the earth.
You are making the mistake of thinking Putin is rational.
 

tavyred

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You are making the mistake of thinking Putin is rational.
You’re making the mistake of thinking Putin is totally irrational.
 

Spoonz Red E

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I would argue that the fact that there is a war being waged in Europe means the situation is far more dangerous than the Cold War and most analysts would agree with that.

Personally I believe that Putin is far more willing to go Nuclear compared to most of the Soviet leaders, even if it means harming his fellow Russians, his actions over the destruction of the dam demonstrate the latter point.
Nuclear is Putin's bluff and he will have it called at great risk to himself.

He knows the fear of nuclear war allows him to push 'conventional war' to its limits.
A depressing result of him being afforded these parameters is that he often deploys scorched earth policies as a strategy.

Devastated civilian areas in Georgia, Chechnya, Syria and now Ukraine.

Within the 'democratic' axis are economic forces that are quite happy to take advantage of non democratic nations to deliver cheap labour and compliant markets.

Unless real and honest effort is put into defending democratic and human rights ideals with economic levers as a force for good this century will be defined, at best, by prolonged military standoffs at huge cost and misery.

War always throws everything into a binary position.
Propaganda replaces information.

If you look at Putin's fellow travellers at the moment they are authoritarian to the core.
Ukraine needs to win this situation as it stands.
But then Ukraine's previous failings need to be addressed so it also wins on a structural and moral level in its own right.
There was corruption in Ukraine.
There was an unhealthy flirtation with ultra right nationalism in some quarters.

If 'defending democracy' means anything then those that profess to be doing it need to step up a gear.
Democracy should be supported by democratic structures and economics.

The fact that the taking of Crimea was accommodated, that Putin feels he can play the waiting game until the West grows weary and the outcomes in Afghanistan, Libya and Iraq show how shallow the reality is.
 

Average Joe

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Let’s not downplay how a nuclear conflict would play out if Putin decided that was the way to go. Russians wouldn’t just be harmed, Russia wouid be wiped off the face of the earth.
If Russia launches a nuclear bomb no one will retaliate, if Russia launched a second then I believe we will have a nuclear war and Russia will be wiped off the map along with the UK.

I just can not see anyone returning a nuclear bomb after the first one being fired.

Luckily we will know before one gets fired, we have systems to not only defend against nuclear weapons, we can hack into systems to stop/divert the bombs.

Equally as much research and money has gone into stopping the attack as it has to research how to make the bombs.
 

tavyred

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If Russia launches a nuclear bomb no one will retaliate, if Russia launched a second then I believe we will have a nuclear war and Russia will be wiped off the map along with the UK.

I just can not see anyone returning a nuclear bomb after the first one being fired.

Luckily we will know before one gets fired, we have systems to not only defend against nuclear weapons, we can hack into systems to stop/divert the bombs.

Equally as much research and money has gone into stopping the attack as it has to research how to make the bombs.
If a NATO country is attacked with nuclear weapons you can expect a full throated nuclear response, that’s its whole ‘raison detre’.
As much as some people may like to paint Putin as the unhinged invade on a whim megalomaniac, there is a reason he invaded now and didn’t wait till Ukraine became a NATO member. Even Putin understands if you attack one NATO member you attack them all.
 

DB9

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Average Joe, You need to read article 5 of NATO.
 

tavyred

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Average Joe, You need to read article 5 of NATO.
The pro-Russian element on here need to wake up and smell the coffee as regards mother Russia now.
In 12 months their ill advised adventure in Ukraine has shown up massive deficiencies in was thought to be until last year a top tier and powerful military. Like Putin himself they like to point to Russia’s nuclear arsenal and think that threat alone will give Russia the leverage to negotiate a face saving peace. There is no leverage to be had with a weapon you are not willing to use and perhaps more importantly your enemies think you’ll never use.
 
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angelic upstart

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Jul 8, 2004
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Nuclear is Putin's bluff and he will have it called at great risk to himself.

He knows the fear of nuclear war allows him to push 'conventional war' to its limits.
A depressing result of him being afforded these parameters is that he often deploys scorched earth policies as a strategy.

Devastated civilian areas in Georgia, Chechnya, Syria and now Ukraine.

Within the 'democratic' axis are economic forces that are quite happy to take advantage of non democratic nations to deliver cheap labour and compliant markets.

Unless real and honest effort is put into defending democratic and human rights ideals with economic levers as a force for good this century will be defined, at best, by prolonged military standoffs at huge cost and misery.

War always throws everything into a binary position.
Propaganda replaces information.

If you look at Putin's fellow travellers at the moment they are authoritarian to the core.
Ukraine needs to win this situation as it stands.
But then Ukraine's previous failings need to be addressed so it also wins on a structural and moral level in its own right.
There was corruption in Ukraine.
There was an unhealthy flirtation with ultra right nationalism in some quarters.

If 'defending democracy' means anything then those that profess to be doing it need to step up a gear.
Democracy should be supported by democratic structures and economics.

The fact that the taking of Crimea was accommodated, that Putin feels he can play the waiting game until the West grows weary and the outcomes in Afghanistan, Libya and Iraq show how shallow the reality is.
Thanks for this. Much appreciated.
 

Radio Free Skaro

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Joined
Dec 17, 2022
Messages
1,301
Location
Chaddington
Thanks for this. Much appreciated.
Nuclear is Putin's bluff and he will have it called at great risk to himself.

He knows the fear of nuclear war allows him to push 'conventional war' to its limits.
A depressing result of him being afforded these parameters is that he often deploys scorched earth policies as a strategy.

Devastated civilian areas in Georgia, Chechnya, Syria and now Ukraine.

Within the 'democratic' axis are economic forces that are quite happy to take advantage of non democratic nations to deliver cheap labour and compliant markets.

Unless real and honest effort is put into defending democratic and human rights ideals with economic levers as a force for good this century will be defined, at best, by prolonged military standoffs at huge cost and misery.

War always throws everything into a binary position.
Propaganda replaces information.

If you look at Putin's fellow travellers at the moment they are authoritarian to the core.
Ukraine needs to win this situation as it stands.
But then Ukraine's previous failings need to be addressed so it also wins on a structural and moral level in its own right.
There was corruption in Ukraine.
There was an unhealthy flirtation with ultra right nationalism in some quarters.

If 'defending democracy' means anything then those that profess to be doing it need to step up a gear.
Democracy should be supported by democratic structures and economics.

The fact that the taking of Crimea was accommodated, that Putin feels he can play the waiting game until the West grows weary and the outcomes in Afghanistan, Libya and Iraq show how shallow the reality is.
Some great posts on this thread at the moment.
 
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