Politics Today

[Hermann]

A winter by election, with a tiny turn out by Chester's record and almost zero mention of it in the rags. I can't see it myself.

I'm not buying it either. Government losses with record swings during Johnson's time were meaningless midterm by-elections, but Labour winning a seat they already held on a tiny turnout is significant?

 

[Hermann]

He can be persuaded, everyone has their price. But if not, then one of Mordaunt or Johnson. Some people would say Badenoch, but I see her being about as appealing to the electorate as Sunak.

You could have had Mordaunt of course, but I remember you being delighted when she was torpedoed by the right-wing press.

 

[Spanks]

You could have had Mordaunt of course, but I remember you being delighted when she was torpedoed by the right-wing press.

Twice. Megalolz.

 

[Mr Jinx]

I'm not buying it either. Government losses with record swings during Johnson's time were meaningless midterm by-elections, but Labour winning a seat they already held on a tiny turnout is significant?

I am.

It's the first evidence I've seen outside of opinion polling of a significant swing to Labour. Previous big swings seen were to the LD's with Labour nowhere. Of course you could rubbish it with the usual caveats. But I would imagine it's sent a bit of a panic out there somewhere.

 

[Mr Jinx]

You could have had Mordaunt of course, but I remember you being delighted when she was torpedoed by the right-wing press.

I think if you look back, you'll find I would've been happy with anyone but Sunak (or Hunt).

 

[Hermann]

I am.

It's the first evidence I've seen outside of opinion polling of a significant swing to Labour. Previous big swings seen were to the LD's with Labour nowhere. Of course you could rubbish it with the usual caveats. But I would imagine it's sent a bit of a panic out there somewhere.

Wakefield had a 12.7% swing to Labour: similar to Chester.

 

[Mr Jinx]

Wakefield had a 12.7% swing to Labour: similar to Chester.

Yeah, but that one needed a pinch of salt, given what the incumbent had done.

 

[Mr Jinx]

A yougov poll of yesterday had Reform climbing higher to its highest yet. They're now at 9%, level with the LDs. Still a bit of work required to get the 14% they saw in 2015. I think that'd be achievable were Sir Nige to throw his full weight behind them (e.g. become joint leader and not just send the odd tweet).

 

[Grecian2K]

A yougov poll of yesterday had Reform climbing higher to its highest yet. They're now at 9%, level with the LDs. Still a bit of work required to get the 14% they saw in 2015. I think that'd be achievable were Sir Nige to throw his full weight behind them (e.g. become joint leader and not just send the odd tweet).

Mind you, out in the real world Reform pulled a "massive" 773 votes from a real poll of 28,275 actual voters in Chester (2.7%). Perhaps more representative than a random yougov sample?

 

[Alistair20000]

Mind you, out in the real world Reform pulled a "massive" 773 votes from a real poll of 28,275 actual voters in Chester (2.7%). Perhaps more representative than a random yougov sample?

City of Chester not fertile ground for a Reform type party.