Over Analysis

[C j phill]

I've clearly got too much time on my hands but I've looked at the number of points needed, over the past six seasons, to avoid league 1 relegation. The average points needed during the period was 45, with the lowest being 36 and the highest at 51.

So mathematically, we need, say 48 points to have a reasonable chance of avoiding the dreaded drop.

After 27 games, we have 27 points, so we need 21 points from our remaining 19 games. This doesn't seem too bad, when you say it quickly, but.........

Our remaining nine home games are against
Bristol Rovers
Peterborough
Derby County
Fleetwood
Bolton Wanderers
Burton
Charlton
Stevenage
Oxford United

Our remaining ten away games are against
Bristol Rovers
Barnsley
Wigan
Lincoln
Peterborough
Shrewsbury
Leyton Orient
Cheltenham
Port Vale
Notthampton

To get to the 21 point target, we have to win 7 of our remaining 9 home games. Even if we sign two effective strikers, I wonder what the odds are of achieving that win rate.

Conversely, if we fail to win seven games at home, we need to pick up points away, which appears problematic to me.

I'm sure that the Direcror of Football and management team are all over the statistics, but I'm not sure that I've gained any comfort from looking at the simplistic data.

 

[Antony Moxey]

Or we could get four wins and nine draws.

 

[Banksy]

It all looks bad whatever.

 

[C j phill]

Looking at the fixtures, four wins seems optimistic to me.

 

[Red Devon]

The away fixtures look more favourable than the home to me.

 

[denzel]

Or we could get four wins and nine draws.

Or 18 draws and one win..

 

[milts]

I've clearly got too much time on my hands but I've looked at the number of points needed, over the past six seasons, to avoid league 1 relegation. The average points needed during the period was 45, with the lowest being 36 and the highest at 51.

So mathematically, we need, say 48 points to have a reasonable chance of avoiding the dreaded drop.

After 27 games, we have 27 points, so we need 21 points from our remaining 19 games. This doesn't seem too bad, when you say it quickly, but.........

Our remaining nine home games are against
Bristol Rovers
Peterborough
Derby County
Fleetwood
Bolton Wanderers
Burton
Charlton
Stevenage
Oxford United

Our remaining ten away games are against
Bristol Rovers
Barnsley
Wigan
Lincoln
Peterborough
Shrewsbury
Leyton Orient
Cheltenham
Port Vale
Notthampton

To get to the 21 point target, we have to win 7 of our remaining 9 home games. Even if we sign two effective strikers, I wonder what the odds are of achieving that win rate.

Conversely, if we fail to win seven games at home, we need to pick up points away, which appears problematic to me.

I'm sure that the Direcror of Football and management team are all over the statistics, but I'm not sure that I've gained any comfort from looking at the simplistic data.

That is a horrible set of fixtures.

We lost far too many winnable in the dire run we were/are on.

The board should have sacked him after Fleetwood and given the new manager a chance.

 

[CREDYGRECIAN]

What will be will be.

We’ve passed up way too many good opportunities in our home games against lower mid table opponents like Cambridge , Port Vale , Shrewsbury for example all of those sides are more than beatable.

add the possible extra 7 points from those games we should or could of taken with perhaps a bit more willingness to attack sides at home and we would be 12th in the league and nobody would bat an eyelid.

Your home form keeps you up….

With what’s left the Burton , Fleetwood , Cheltenham , Shrewsbury , Wigan and Port Vale games look massive - if we could win say 4-5 of those and add a few draws in the rest i reckon we will
just sneak over the line….

 

[milts]

I didn’t realise Rovers had yet to win in 2024.

 

[Grecian Max]

I didn’t realise Rovers had yet to win in 2024.

Changes on Tuesday

We are a walkover for any half decent side