Rosencrantz
Very well known Exeweb poster
Here is a previous worst case scenario issued by Sage back on 29 March. Also includes a best outcome graphs which for some reason doesn't get the same attention.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/897509/S0089_Reasonable_Worst-Case_Planning_Scenario_-_29.03.pdf
I'm sure someone will pick the bones out of it, but the headline figure of 50,000 deaths in the first wave up to September in the worst case scenario seems disturbingly accurate. The better news is that if you compare their table for deaths in the worse case scenario to actual figures, they seem to have underestimated the original spike but we are now below what they forecasted for weekly deaths entering July.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/897509/S0089_Reasonable_Worst-Case_Planning_Scenario_-_29.03.pdf
I'm sure someone will pick the bones out of it, but the headline figure of 50,000 deaths in the first wave up to September in the worst case scenario seems disturbingly accurate. The better news is that if you compare their table for deaths in the worse case scenario to actual figures, they seem to have underestimated the original spike but we are now below what they forecasted for weekly deaths entering July.