International relations thread

[Phil Sayers]

This is a very big deal, he had commanded the IRGC presence in Syria ever since the protests against Assad first broke out in 2011 and prior to that had held numerous other senior roles. His deputy (also a General) and half a dozen other senior IRGC figures were additionally killed in the strike. This is comparable to when Soleimani was whacked and Iran fired ballistic missiles at US bases in response. They are bound to significantly retaliate and might launch missiles from Iran at Israel. Nasrallah must be dreading his phone ringing - is it Tehran instructing him to go all out (which he doesn't want to do) or Tel Aviv telling him that going all out would be the last thing he ever does?

 

[angelic upstart]

So Phil, just so I'm clear in my head. Israel have dropped bombs in Lebanon, Syria, Gazan hospitals and targeted air strikes on food aid volunteers in the last week. They've displaced 2 million people (a lot of which will be in Europe at some point in the future) 30+k women and children dead and they're still receiving aid and buying arms from the West. My question is what's their end game?

 

[tavyred]

So Phil, just so I'm clear in my head. Israel have dropped bombs in Lebanon, Syria, Gazan hospitals and targeted air strikes on food aid volunteers in the last week. They've displaced 2 million people (a lot of which will be in Europe at some point in the future) 30+k women and children dead and they're still receiving aid and buying arms from the West. My question is what's their end game?

Dropped bombs on Hezbollah (an Iranian proxy terrorist army) in Lebanon and the IRGC in Syria. Gazaan hospitals are command and control centres for Hamas unfortunately, the Islamist terror group responsible (at the behest of Iran) for the slaughter of 1300K Israeli’s in one day back in October. The killing of the civilian volunteers yesterday the Israeli’s have already admitted was unintentional, it’s a war these things happen. The deaths of Gazaans ends when Hamas surrenders and hands back the remaining hostages, If indeed any are still alive. Finally Israel is an ally, engaged in the clearly stated aim of destroying Hamas and thus securing its national security.

 

[angelic upstart]

Dropped bombs on Hezbollah (an Iranian proxy terrorist army) in Lebanon and the IRGC in Syria. Gazaan hospitals are command and control centres for Hamas unfortunately, the Islamist terror group responsible (at the behest of Iran) for the slaughter of 1300K Israeli’s in one day back in October. The killing of the civilian volunteers yesterday the Israeli’s have already admitted was unintentional, it’s a war these things happen. The deaths of Gazaans ends when Hamas surrenders and hands back the remaining hostages, If indeed any are still alive. Finally Israel is an ally, engaged in the clearly stated aim of destroying Hamas and thus securing its national security.

Glad to hear you'll not complain when we have 100k Gazans in the UK in the next few years.

 

[Phil Sayers]

So Phil, just so I'm clear in my head. Israel have dropped bombs in Lebanon, Syria, Gazan hospitals and targeted air strikes on food aid volunteers in the last week. They've displaced 2 million people (a lot of which will be in Europe at some point in the future) 30+k women and children dead and they're still receiving aid and buying arms from the West. My question is what's their end game?

Well, with regards the strikes against Hezbollah then that started because Hezbollah started attacking them back in October to show solidarity with Hamas. With regards the strikes in Syria against the IRGC then that is something they have been doing for over a decade (many hundreds of strikes, possibly now into the thousands) so as to prevent an Iranian military entrenchment in Syria in the hope of denying them the ability to open an additional front out of that territory in the event of regional war.

What has changed in the last few weeks in both instances is that Israel have been getting more aggressive, hitting deeper into Lebanon against Hezbollah and hitting more sensitive IRGC targets in Syria. I can't say for sure why but I suspect the reason is that Netanyahu / the Israeli military establishment feel that they have 'won' the deterrence game and that adopting this course is win / win. If Hezbollah and the IRGC are sufficiently cowed that they do not properly respond to these strikes then Israel has nothing to lose in continuing to kill their senior figures; after all everyone is basically thinking a regional war is coming whether now or in a decade so may as well weaken your enemy beforehand. If however they do significantly respond then that puts the ball into Israel's court as to where to go from there and right now I think neither Netanyahu (for electoral reasons) or the Israeli military (due to their belief that war is coming anyway and that this may be the best time for a heavy exchange whereas delay might suit Iran) would be adverse to several months of intense combat with Iran and their various regional proxies. It should of course be said that would lead to catastrophic loss of life (particularly in Lebanon) and is something the US are very opposed to.

 

[BigBanker]

Glad to hear you'll not complain when we have 100k Gazans in the UK in the next few years.

'It's a war, these things happen'

 

[tavyred]

Glad to hear you'll not complain when we have 100k Gazans in the UK in the next few years.

Apparently not, I was quite rightly educated a few weeks back by a fellow poster (Phil?) that the chances of a large influx of Palestinians was unlikely as they are inclined to stay in the Middle East as to leave would be to do Israel a favour if they left. Aside from that, I don’t think any western government would be minded to take them in anyway.

 

[lamrobhero]

For values to have meaning they have to be universal. So by denying the rights of others you are actually denying your own rights. Some posters like to be serfs.

 

[angelic upstart]

Apparently not, I was quite rightly educated a few weeks back by a fellow poster (Phil?) that the chances of a large influx of Palestinians was unlikely as they are inclined to stay in the Middle East as to leave would be to do Israel a favour if they left. Aside from that, I don’t think any western government would be minded to take them in anyway.

There is no Gaza strip anymore. The Israelis will rebuild it and have beautiful houses by the sea. The displaced people will have to go somewhere. So they'll come to Europe and we'll welcome them with open arms like we always do.

To think otherwise is more than naive.

 

[angelic upstart]

'It's a war, these things happen'

It reminds me of when we were at war in Northern Ireland, my uncle did 4 tours there all in the early 80s. He faced daily harassment from kids (both sides!) who'd been told to chuck stuff (shit in newspaper, chips, stones etc) at him, as a soldier he was expected to take it on the chin but not to retaliate as it would cause further issues. So he didn't.

Imagine that happening in the West Bank!