What date will we be back watching live football at SJP Thread.

[malcolms]

It would be 0.1%

I was leaving Egg to work that one out...The odds involved are much more in favour of arriving in hospital with almost any other ailment...appendicitis for instance, with a lifetime occurrence of 7 percent

 

[Alistair20000]

It would be 0.1%

I make it 0.02%

5,000,000 x 0.02% = 1,000

 

[jimmy]

I make it 0.02%

5,000,000 x 0.02% = 1,000

He said times it by 5, which = 5,000 which = 0.1%

 

[Alistair20000]

He said times it by 5, which = 5,000 which = 0.1%

Correct but I thought the calculation was the % of people in hospital to population.

Looks like Malcs maths were awry with 1%.

 

[malcolms]

Correct but I thought the calculation was the % of people in hospital to population.

Looks like Malcs maths were awry with 1%.

Yep you're right, I left a 0 out.

 

[John William]

The Covid figures are still much too high nationally and the most recent figures from ONS do show a significant spike in deaths from all causes in the week to 13th November, but the statistician in me is increasingly irritated by the misuse of the genuine numbers to misinform by all sides of this debate and especially the scare tactics of the Prof. Ferguson modelling. I'm reminded of the wise words of Andrew lang: “Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination”

So while I hesitate to jump into this argument the thing that (currently) irritates me most is that the headline on relevant section of the gov.uk website says "patients on ventilation". In fact as the detail shows the statistics are actually of people in beds capable of mechanical ventilation. Not the same thing at all.

I understand (admittedly secondhand) via a senior member of RD&E nursing staff that there were a few days ago not one patient there actually on a conventional "ventilator". Several on supplementary oxygen but none intubated.

Also that none of the recent deaths in R&E was primarily from CV, but all were with CV (and I understand several of the deaths there caught it in the hospital, though that's a different issue). Again as a statistician I understand why the authorities include anyone who dies with CV or within 28 days of a positive test in the numbers but the lack of contextualisation, except buried in the notes which few read, is IMO inexcusable. Lazy and incompetent journalists compound the problem, of course, but they don't produce or announce the numbers.

 

[Boyo]

Nearly 5 million population in the South West with just over 1000 in hospital with Covid Symptoms....Do you know what that is as a percentage? Let me help you...5 times that would be only 1%....

Alternatively, there are just 9,000 hospital beds across the SW and over 1,000 are filled with Covid patients. That's a pretty high percentage. For each bed occupied by a Covid patient, one other patient is potentially denied critical care.

Stats, damned stats and lies.

 

[Egg]

Nearly 5 million population in the South West with just over 1000 in hospital with Covid Symptoms....Do you know what that is as a percentage? Let me help you...5 times that would be only 1%....

What it might be as a percentage of the population is irrelevant to whether or not we might run out of hospital beds.

South West could run out of COVID hospital beds in 2 weeks

It comes as the government considers imposing a month long national lockdown to halt the spread of coronavirus

www.devonlive.com

In any case, I've got an A-level in maths so I'm okay there thanks. If, however, you could provide an explanation as to why the creator of this graph has chosen to extract the figures for people in ICUs with COVID, from the ONS website, and present them as the figures for people in hospitals with COVID that would be extremely helpful.

 

[John William]

Alternatively, there are just 9,000 hospital beds across the SW and over 1,000 are filled with Covid patients. That's a pretty high percentage. For each bed occupied by a Covid patient, one other patient is potentially denied critical care.

Stats, damned stats and lies.

Actually it's not a high percentage compared to the normal for late November and many of these people would presumably have been in hospital anyway for the other health issues they face. Every year we get stories that our hospitals are overflowing with winter peaks and every year we get by. I'd be more focused on staffing availability, you could have 10,000 beds but if there were not enough people to staff them it's be meaningless.

ps

Latest numbers from gov.uk - 968 in hospital with CV in the SW of whom 70 are in beds capable of mechanical ventilation.

 

[Grecian Max]

What it might be as a percentage of the population is irrelevant to whether or not we might run out of hospital beds.

South West could run out of COVID hospital beds in 2 weeks

It comes as the government considers imposing a month long national lockdown to halt the spread of coronavirus

www.devonlive.com

In any case, I've got an A-level in maths so I'm okay there thanks. If, however, you could provide an explanation as to why the creator of this graph has chosen to extract the figures for people in ICUs with COVID, from the ONS website, and present them as the figures for people in hospitals with COVID that would be extremely helpful.

So suddenly The Echo is the no.1 trusted source (quoting from The Mirror), eh?