UK and European Politics 2024 Thread

[Alistair20000]

Is she in a safe seat? Are there any truly safe Tory seats now?

Won Saffron Walden with a 27,594 majority in 2019. Seat now called North West Essex with only minor boundary changes.

 

[Alistair20000]

Kemi Badendoch for Tory leader anyone?! Assuming there is a functioning Conservative party left to lead after the election ..

Not sufficiently mentally agile IMO

 

[angelic upstart]

Lots of decent polling related stuff on the usually excellent redfield and Wilton page on Twitter for those that are interested.

 

[angelic upstart]

In short, looks like reform likely to come second but only win 5 seats. Assuming the pills aren't under-egging the reform scores. Which I think they will be.

Crucially, they're second in the 18-25 age group, whilst the conservatives are fifth.

In short, the election has the potential to be the catalyst for some change within politics and the UK.

 

[Socrates]

Not sufficiently mentally agile IMO

You're a Fast Show character and I claim my £5.

 

[tavyred]

In short, looks like reform likely to come second but only win 5 seats. Assuming the pills aren't under-egging the reform scores. Which I think they will be.

Crucially, they're second in the 18-25 age group, whilst the conservatives are fifth.

In short, the election has the potential to be the catalyst for some change within politics and the UK.

A party polling second and getting less than 10 seats should cause a constitutional crisis. But it won’t.

 

[angelic upstart]

A party polling second and getting less than 10 seats should cause a constitutional crisis. But it won’t.

I'm not so sure. The British seem to be waking up a bit.

 

[BigBanker]

In short, looks like reform likely to come second but only win 5 seats. Assuming the pills aren't under-egging the reform scores. Which I think they will be.

Crucially, they're second in the 18-25 age group, whilst the conservatives are fifth.

In short, the election has the potential to be the catalyst for some change within politics and the UK.

Wouldn't surprise me if Reform suffer the biggest negative variance between polling and actual vote share, not least because the system is so obviously rigged against them (and all the others except the big two).

 

[tavyred]

P

I'm not so sure. The British seem to be waking up a bit.

The Uni-party cartel will never expose their cosy stitch-up to PR and Reform getting 20% of the vote and an appropriate number of seats AU.

 

[mustangspeed2006]

Crucially, they're second in the 18-25 age group, whilst the conservatives are fifth.

In the recent European Parliament elections, the AfD, a party further to the right than Reform, came second in this age group in Germany. Interestingly, the conservative CDU also performed well among young voters. Since Merkel stepped down and the CDU went into opposition after the 2021 election, the party has moved away from the centre.

The AfD have used social media channels like TikTok adeptly to engage with youngsters. The FN in France has been similarly successful with this demographic.