The Politics Thread USA Edition

[Alistair20000]

...but the gerrymandering of the House constituency boundaries overwhelmingly favours the Republicans. It is beyond bizarre that the country that sees itself as the leader of the free world doesn't have an independent electoral commission, but leaves the running of elections in the hands of politicians

Can you be more precise about this gerrymandering please art ? Who is being naughty ?

Have they been studying Jim Callaghan's method of gerrymandering perhaps ? We have an independent commission but he ignored it. Shame about that poor behaviour as I quite liked Sunny Jim.

 

[iscalad]

Can you be more precise about this gerrymandering please art ? Who is being naughty ?

Have they been studying Jim Callaghan's method of gerrymandering perhaps ? We have an independent commission but he ignored it. Shame about that poor behaviour as I quite liked Sunny Jim.

Ah, the winter of discontent. Happy days

 

[Alistair20000]

Ah, the winter of discontent. Happy days

Only us old farts who recall it but of course Sunny Jim (Ho ho ho fella m'lad) never actually used these words as suggested by The Sun.

 

[Hermann]

Another little special election tidbit: Sarah Palin was beaten by the Democrat candidate to a House seat in Alaska. The seat had been previously held by Republicans for 49 years, and the winner is the first Democrat elected to Congress by Akaska since 2008. Alaska is pretty Republican (they've not voted for a Democrat president since 1964) and Palin was elected governor there in 2006. She was endorsed by Trump though, which is fast becoming the kiss of death.

 

[Jason H]

Another little special election tidbit: Sarah Palin was beaten by the Democrat candidate to a House seat in Alaska. The seat had been previously held by Republicans for 49 years, and the winner is the first Democrat elected to Congress by Akaska since 2008. Alaska is pretty Republican (they've not voted for a Democrat president since 1964) and Palin was elected governor there in 2006. She was endorsed by Trump though, which is fast becoming the kiss of death.

I believe you're mistaken - the Democrat came top of the primary race which is quite a weird one in Alaska whereby it's an open primary with four candidates in total passing to the election in November.

There was one Democrat in the primary, Mary Peltola, who got 36.8% of the vote. The next three on the ballot, receiving a total of 60.2% of the votes between them, were all Republicans (including Palin). There were a further five Republicans on the ballot, so nine in total compared with one Democrat. The fourth placed candidate (and third Republican), Tara Sweeney, has withdrawn from the race leaving the 5th placed candidate, a Libertarian, to be placed on the final ballot instead.

The weird Alaska system allowing four candidates from any party (or none) may mean a split vote in the final election in November, but the likelihood is Republican voters will probably coalesce behind either Palin or Nick Begich and win the seat.

 

[Hermann]

I believe you're mistaken - the Democrat came top of the primary race which is quite a weird one in Alaska whereby it's an open primary with four candidates in total passing to the election in November.

There was one Democrat in the primary, Mary Peltola, who got 36.8% of the vote. The next three on the ballot, receiving a total of 60.2% of the votes between them, were all Republicans (including Palin). There were a further five Republicans on the ballot, so nine in total compared with one Democrat. The fourth placed candidate (and third Republican), Tara Sweeney, has withdrawn from the race leaving the 5th placed candidate, a Libertarian, to be placed on the final ballot instead.

The weird Alaska system allowing four candidates from any party (or none) may mean a split vote in the final election in November, but the likelihood is Republican voters will probably coalesce behind either Palin or Nick Begich and win the seat.

No, I think you're mistaken. There was a primary in May for the special election with 48 candidates, at which 4 candidates (3 Republican, 1 Democrat) advanced to the main election. 1 Republican dropped out, leaving 3 to contest. The 2nd Republican was eliminated after a round of voting and their votes transferred. In the final head-to-head, the Democrat candidate won 51.47% and will sit in the House until the midterms in November.

There is some confusion as they elected to hold the midterm primary at the same time as the special election, which I imagine is what you're referring to?

I'm glad you raise the transferable voting system though, as 17,000 Alaskans who voted for the other Republican had the Democrat as their second choice over Palin. That in itself is very interesting.

 

[arthur]

I'm glad you raise the transferable voting system though, as 17,000 Alaskans who voted for the other Republican had the Democrat as their second choice over Palin. That in itself is very interesting.

Ah, the transferable vote system. Good enough for Alaskans and Tory leadership contests, but not for the likes of us ordinary English mortals..

 

[Jason H]

No, I think you're mistaken. There was a primary in May for the special election with 48 candidates, at which 4 candidates (3 Republican, 1 Democrat) advanced to the main election. 1 Republican dropped out, leaving 3 to contest. The 2nd Republican was eliminated after a round of voting and their votes transferred. In the final head-to-head, the Democrat candidate won 51.47% and will sit in the House until the midterms in November.

There is some confusion as they elected to hold the midterm primary at the same time as the special election, which I imagine is what you're referring to?

I'm glad you raise the transferable voting system though, as 17,000 Alaskans who voted for the other Republican had the Democrat as their second choice over Palin. That in itself is very interesting.

Ah yes, I am mistaken, I'd forgotten about the special election.

I'm perhaps not entirely surprised 17k voters may have moved over, as there may have been a significant anti-Palin element within the Begich vote (otherwise they'd have surely voted for Palin in the first place). Should be noted the polls almost entirely had Begich ahead of Palin.

 

[Hermann]

Ah yes, I am mistaken, I'd forgotten about the special election.

I'm perhaps not entirely surprised 17k voters may have moved over, as there may have been a significant anti-Palin element within the Begich vote (otherwise they'd have surely voted for Palin in the first place). Should be noted the polls almost entirely had Begich ahead of Palin.

Indeed. Since it appears Palin can't win, the Republicans' chances in November rely on her supporters switching to Begich. I think a proportion will, but if Trump continues to back Palin it might not be enough.

These sorts of seats should be rock solid Republican if they want to take the House this year. It's not looking good for them currently.

 

[Hermann]

Ever the comedian, Eric Trump has this week stated at a rally that "There’s no one who’s done more for Christianity than Donald Trump. No one."

I know he's not the sharpest tool in the box, but he's heard of Jesus right?